Trump’s aggressive trade tariffs and provocative statements, including threats to annex Canada or make it the “51st state”, sparked a surge of nationalist sentiment in Canada. This shifted voter focus toward economic survival and sovereignty, favoring the Liberals, who positioned themselves as defenders of Canadian interests.
Mark Carney capitalized on this by framing the election as a stand against Trump, resonating with voters wary of external threats.
The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, whose “Canada First” slogan and populist style echoed Trump’s rhetoric, became a liability as voters associated him with Trump’s divisive approach. This alienated moderate voters and hurt his campaign, especially after Trump’s election-day taunts.
At the start of 2025, the Conservatives held a commanding 20–27-point lead in polls, driven by public frustration with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s handling of inflation, immigration, and housing costs. However, Trudeau’s resignation in January and his replacement by Mark Carney, a respected economist and former Bank of England governor, reset the Liberal campaign. Carney’s economic credentials and crisis-management experience neutralized the Conservatives.
The Conservatives failed to adapt their strategy after Carney scrapped unpopular Liberal policies and reframed the campaign around national unity and economic resilience, causing their lead to evaporate.
Poilievre’s loss of his Carleton, Ontario, seat – held since 2004 – was a stunning blow, reflecting voter rejection of his populist approach. His support for the 2022 trucker convoy protests, which disrupted Ottawa, was cited by voters as a reason for their distrust, particularly in his riding.
Internal party tensions and lack of support from key provincial Conservative leaders, like Ontario Premier Doug Ford and Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston, weakened Poilievre’s campaign. Ford’s public meeting with Carney and criticism of Poilievre’s leadership highlighted divisions within the Conservative movement.
Poilievre’s campaign focused heavily on domestic issues like housing affordability and cost-of-living pressures, which resonated with younger voters but failed to address the broader geopolitical anxieties stirred by Trump’s actions.
The election saw a two-party race, with both Liberals and Conservatives gaining vote share at the expense of smaller parties like the NDP and Bloc Québécois. Progressive voters, including NDP supporters, coalesced around the Liberals to counter Trump’s threats, undermining Poilievre’s chances. The NDP’s collapse to seven seats and loss of official party status further concentrated the progressive vote.
Poilievre faced 90 independent candidates in his riding, many linked to an electoral reform group, which may have split the vote and contributed to his defeat.
Despite gaining seats (from 120 to 143) and achieving a historic 41.4% of the popular vote, the Conservatives couldn’t secure enough seats to win. Their campaign was criticized for not addressing U.S. tariff concerns adequately and for controversial remarks by candidates, echoing past missteps that alienated moderate voters.
Poilievre’s defeat in his own riding and the party’s failure to capitalize on early momentum led to calls for leadership change, though his popularity among the base and support from some MPs tempered immediate moves to replace him.
The Liberals secured 170 seats, two short of a majority, requiring cooperation with other parties, likely the NDP or Bloc Québécois, to pass legislation and survive no-confidence votes. This could lead to compromises on policy priorities, potentially diluting Carney’s agenda.
A minority government may face instability, with the risk of another election if confidence is lost, especially given the polarized House of Commons.
Carney has vowed to negotiate with Trump on tariffs while diversifying Canada’s trade partners to reduce reliance on the U.S., signaling a shift from decades of economic integration. This could involve strengthening ties with Europe, Asia, or other regions, but it will require significant diplomatic and economic restructuring.
Carney’s background as a central banker positions him to prioritize economic stability, with promises to address housing shortages, boost energy production, and create skilled trade jobs. However, U.S. tariffs will continue to strain industries like automotive, steel, and lumber, particularly in regions like Alberta.
The Liberals’ near shutout in Alberta and Saskatchewan highlights a growing sense of western alienation, exacerbated by Carney’s focus on Ontario and Quebec, which hold 200 of 343 seats. Carney must bridge this divide to prevent a national unity crisis, possibly by leveraging his Alberta roots to engage with provincial leaders like Danielle Smith.
Carney’s victory speech emphasized unity, but the strong Conservative vote in Alberta (all but three seats) and among certain immigrant communities in the Greater Toronto Area suggests deep regional and demographic divides that will challenge governance.
Carney’s assertion that the “old relationship with the United States is over” indicates a more assertive Canadian foreign policy. His government will likely prioritize defense deals with new partners and bolster national security to counter Trump’s threats, potentially increasing military spending.
The Liberal win ensures a government less philosophically aligned with Trump’s agenda, positioning Canada as a counterweight to U.S. policies in North America. This could strain bilateral relations but strengthen Canada’s global standing as an independent actor.
The election revealed a polarized electorate, with Conservatives making inroads among younger voters and immigrant communities over cost-of-living and crime concerns, while Liberals consolidated progressive and nationalist votes. Carney’s government must address these competing priorities to maintain support.
The NDP’s collapse and Jagmeet Singh’s resignation weaken the left-leaning opposition, potentially giving Carney more room to govern from the center-left but also risking voter disillusionment among progressives if economic policies lean too conservative.
The Conservative loss stemmed from a combination of external factors (Trump’s influence), strategic errors (failure to adapt to Carney’s leadership and nationalist wave), and internal divisions (lack of provincial support and Poilievre’s polarizing style).
The Liberal victory, while a remarkable comeback, leaves Canada with a minority government facing economic uncertainty, regional divides, and a transformed U.S. relationship. Carney’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine whether his government can deliver on its promises of unity, economic resilience, and sovereignty.