The United States is one of the world’s leading producers of soybeans, with the crop playing a pivotal role in the nation’s agricultural economy. In the 2024/25 marketing year, the US produced approximately 118 million metric tons of soybeans, contributing significantly to global supply.
Exports are crucial, accounting for about 40-50% of annual production historically, with China traditionally being the largest buyer. However, in 2025, US soybean exports are grappling with a confluence of challenges, including escalating trade tensions, fierce international competition, shifting domestic demands, logistical disruptions, and the intensifying effects of climate change.
These issues not only threaten export volumes but also exacerbate financial pressures on farmers, potentially leading to reduced planting, higher storage costs, and broader economic impacts across rural communities.
One of the most pressing problems for US soybean exports is the ongoing trade dispute with China, which has imposed retaliatory tariffs that severely undermine competitiveness. China’s overall duty rate on US soybeans stands at 34% in 2025, comprising a 20% retaliatory tariff, a 3% Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff, and a sliding Value Added Tax (VAT). This makes US soybeans significantly more expensive than those from competitors, pricing them out of the Chinese market.
Historically, China imported 28% of US soybean production in the seven years before the 2018 trade war, peaking at 31% in the 2020/21 marketing year and representing 60% of total US soybean exports. However, by the 2023/24 marketing year, this had dropped to just 22%, with exports to China totaling nearly 25 million metric tons – still substantial but far below potential.
The 2018 trade war provides a stark precedent: US soybean exports to China plummeted from an average pre-war value of $12.8 billion per year to $4.7 billion in 2018/19 and $5.8 billion in 2019/20, resulting in an estimated $9.4 billion annual loss for US soybean farmers – 71% of the total $27 billion hit to US agricultural exports. In 2025, similar risks loom, with projections indicating that escalating tariffs under the current administration could put $12.8 billion in US soybean exports to China at risk, particularly affecting Midwest states like Iowa, Illinois, and Minnesota.
As of August 2025, China has placed zero new crop orders for the 2025/26 marketing year, leading to a 5% drop in November 2025 soybean futures prices from $10.3575 per bushel to $9.845 per bushel between July 18 and August 6. Market skepticism persists regarding China’s willingness to follow through on purchase requests amid directives to reduce imports of certain grains, further dampening export prospects. Farmers face production costs averaging $12.05 per bushel, making current cash prices – widening to negative $1.20 per bushel basis in regions like North Dakota – unsustainable without a trade resolution.
Intensifying competition from Brazil and Argentina is eroding the US share of the global soybean market, particularly in China. Brazil, now the world’s top producer, is projected to harvest 175 million metric tons in 2025, dwarfing the US’s 118 million metric tons. In the 2024/25 marketing year, Brazil produced 42% more soybeans than the US, exporting 112 million metric tons – enough to match China’s entire import demand for that period.
Favorable exchange rates and lower costs have allowed Brazil to dominate seasonal buying windows, with its harvest starting in February narrowing the US selling period. Argentina, recovering from previous droughts, is expected to see rising whole bean exports in 2025/26, further pressuring US market access.
Chinese buyers have shifted dramatically: In 2025, all 8 million metric tons booked for September and 4 million for October originated from South America, bypassing US supplies despite their superior amino acid profiles and quality. Even with a 90-day pause on higher US tariffs extended in 2025, farmers report that Brazil retains a competitive edge, with US exports hitting 20-year lows due to trade tensions redirecting demand southward.
This shift has long-term implications, as South American infrastructure improvements and production growth – Brazil’s output up 45% since the first trade war – solidify their dominance.
Rising domestic consumption, particularly for biofuel production, is limiting exportable surpluses. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts 2025/26 soybean production at 4.3 billion bushels, down 43 million from prior estimates due to a 3% decline in planted and harvested acres, though yields are projected at 53.6 bushels per acre.
Exports are expected to fall to 1.7 billion bushels, reflecting tighter supplies and increased crushing for soybean oil used in biodiesel. In 2024, half of the US’s 13 million metric tons of soybean oil went to biodiesel, prompting crushers to seek more beans domestically and reducing exports by one billion pounds in 2025/26.
Global oilseed stocks are also tightening, with ending stocks lowered due to reduced soybean inventories. These dynamics keep season-average prices stable at $10.10 per bushel but cap export growth, with new crop sales down 81% from the five-year average.
Unpredictable trade policies are compounding logistical hurdles, disrupting the flow of soybeans to international markets. With harvest 45-60 days away in August 2025, the absence of Chinese orders creates surplus risks, forcing farmers to incur steep storage expenses amid falling prices.
Supply chains optimized for China – such as barge transport from the Midwest to Gulf ports (two weeks) or rail to the Pacific Northwest (five days plus two weeks by vessel) – are underutilized, leading to inefficiencies.
Tariffs have reshaped global routes, with a 2025 USDA report estimating a 25% drop in US soybean exports to China since 2023, costing $2 billion and idling infrastructure like West Coast ports. Broader tariff threats on Mexico and China could impact over $30 billion in annual agricultural trade flows, further straining last-mile logistics and eroding supply chain reliability.
Climate change is exacerbating production challenges, indirectly affecting export volumes through reduced yields and quality. In 2025, Midwest farmers have faced excess rainfall, fueling diseases like northern corn leaf blight and pest pressures in soybean fields, with Ohio experiencing planting delays and ponding that stunt crop maturity.
Last year’s droughts in the eastern corn belt slashed yields by 25-30%, costing $11 billion nationally. Projections indicate a 3% decrease in US soybean yields by 2036, with central states potentially seeing up to 7.1% declines, leading to a $319 million drop in exports—including $171 million to China.
Broader trends show adverse impacts from warming temperatures, heavy rains, and extreme events like tornadoes and hail storms, with soybean yields projected to fall by up to 24% in coming decades. These weather stresses not only lower output but also increase vulnerability to pests and diseases, compounding export challenges when combined with trade barriers.
The multifaceted problems plaguing US soybean exports in 2025 – trade tariffs, South American competition, domestic shifts, logistical woes, and climate impacts – are interconnected, creating a vicious cycle of reduced demand, surplus stocks, and financial strain for farmers.
Without policy interventions like tariff reductions or diversified markets, the sector risks a widening agricultural trade deficit and economic contraction in soybean-dependent states. Initiatives by groups like the American Soybean Association to reopen Chinese access and promote quality advantages offer hope, but urgent action is needed to secure the future of this vital export.
As global demand for soybeans grows with biofuel expansion and food needs, the US must navigate these hurdles to regain its competitive footing.